The Sentinel model enters the week with its strongest bullish signal configuration in the full 907-day sample. PC-1 reached 6.06 — the highest reading ever recorded — indicating the dominant narrative composite has moved decisively into positive territory. All three model signals are LONG with full consensus. The S&P 500 reading of 6,831 was captured at 9:00 am Central on April 10, before end-of-day settlement; the cone and all band values reflect this intraday anchor.
The ECT z-score of −2.87 places the system in the strong Jeffreys band (|z| between 2.0 and 3.0), triggering a 2.0× multiplier — the widest cone configuration in the sample. A negative ECT z-score means the current S&P reading is sitting approximately 588 points above the narrative equilibrium anchor. Price has run ahead of where the narrative composite says it should be. This creates genuine two-sided uncertainty: the model’s base case of 8,096 (+18.5%) reflects the scenario where the narrative composite continues rising to meet current price levels and equilibrium extends upward. The wide bands (7,647 to 8,544 at ±1σ) acknowledge that mean-reversion of the deviation in either direction is statistically plausible.
GEO regime remains active but geo_shock has declined to 2.61 from 3.33 last week, continuing a gradual normalization of the Iran/Oil narrative channel. WoE increment dropped further to 0.88 dB, indicating the geopolitical signal is contributing less urgency than in prior weeks. Fear at 279 is stable. The dominant driver of the record PC-1 appears to be a broad shift in the narrative field away from tariff and recession fear themes — both of which have collapsed from their February-March peaks — toward more constructive economic language. The model reads this as the narrative environment having cleared substantially, even while the GEO flag and elevated deviation keep uncertainty elevated.